Paxton Crushes Cornyn’s Senate Dreams as Texas GOP War Heats Up

Paul Riverbank, 2/10/2026Ken Paxton leads Texas GOP Senate race, unsettling Cornyn—primary chaos and high-stakes battles ahead.

These figures emerged from a poll of 550 likely Republican voters. While numbers are just numbers, what’s unfolding behind them is a statehouse drama with only 12 percent of Republican primary-goers on the fence. Paxton, unrestrained on social media, wasted no time. “Major independent poll shows me crushing Cornyn in the primary and outperforming him in the general,” he proclaimed on X, adding a shot at Cornyn’s campaign spending—“lighting tens of millions on fire that should have gone to other Senate races.”

Favorability numbers underline the emerging split. Seventy-two percent view Paxton favorably, while only 22 percent see him in a dimmer light. Oddly enough, Hunt is just a step behind (70% favorable/10% unfavorable) despite trailing in support. Cornyn, though, is caught in the ebb and flow of changing tides—his favorable numbers sit at 61 percent, but almost a third of GOP voters think unfavorably of him now, a figure that’s crept upward since last year.

Cornyn, once nearly synonymous with Texas GOP power, is watching the ground shift under his feet. Voter sentiment—the hard-to-define energy that shakes up reliable narratives—has turned, giving Paxton an edge nearly everywhere, except among Latino voters, where Cornyn clings to a seven-point margin.

There’s similar churn on the Democratic side. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, with 47 percent, leads Texas Rep. James Talarico by eight points. The breakdown is revealing: Crockett —newly ascendant among Latino voters (46% for her, 37% for Talarico, flipping earlier trends)—has found traction almost everywhere except among white voters and those with postgraduate degrees. Still, 12 percent of likely Democratic voters say they're undecided, which keeps the room noisy.

When pollsters push the hypothetical button for general election matchups, the margin shrinks. Both Paxton and Cornyn only manage a two-point lead over Crockett, well within the margin of error. Against Talarico, neither Republican gains much breathing room—Paxton does a shade better, but “breathing room” would be overselling it. Between 7 and 8 percent are undecided in these matchups, underlining a race in which no one can take November for granted.

It’s worth pausing to reflect on the nature of Texas primaries—they draw far less participation than might be expected considering the outside attention they receive. In 2024, just 14 percent of eligible Texans voted in the March primary (compare that to the 49 percent who typically show up in November). Yet, those primary-goers are shaping who will actually appear on the November ballot, a fact that’s not lost on organizers.

Practical matters: early voting begins February 17. Turnout veterans know the drill, but newer voters should keep in mind that Texas requires photo ID—be it a driver’s license, handgun permit, U.S. passport, or military identification. For those who come up empty on those documents, a Reasonable Impediment Declaration plus, say, a bank statement or utility bill suffices. A voter registration card isn’t required, but it can help with alternate IDs.

Statisticians add their own footnotes: the Hobby School poll reports a 2.53-point margin of error for the GOP side, and a wider 4.18 points for the general Senate survey; in close races, small swings can land as large headlines.

Political winds don’t blow just from Austin or Washington. The survey reached 1,502 likely general election voters and found Texas is split on Donald Trump’s record: 49 percent approve, half do not. Trump's record on immigration and border security gets a narrow thumbs-up—51 to 47 percent—but doesn’t fare as well on foreign policy, the economy, or the cost of living. There the negatives outweigh the positives, suggesting that national themes will shadow the state contest all the way through.

As March edges closer and candidates fine-tune their pitch, it’s plain that Texans—even those now undecided—are paying attention. The coming months will be noisy, unpredictable, and closely watched, both inside Texas and beyond its borders. To borrow a phrase, the only certainty is that nothing is certain, and the stakes are rising with every passing week.

Texas hasn’t witnessed this kind of Senate primary intensity in quite a while. In late January, the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs caught a snapshot of a charged GOP contest, and the headline was a surprise to some insiders—Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the pack. He’s at 38 percent, seven points ahead of the longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (31 percent), with Rep. Wesley Hunt registering at 17 percent.These figures emerged from a poll of 550 likely Republican voters. While numbers are just numbers, what’s unfolding behind them is a statehouse drama with only 12 percent of Republican primary-goers on the fence. Paxton, unrestrained on social media, wasted no time. “Major independent poll shows me crushing Cornyn in the primary and outperforming him in the general,” he proclaimed on X, adding a shot at Cornyn’s campaign spending—“lighting tens of millions on fire that should have gone to other Senate races.”Favorability numbers underline the emerging split. Seventy-two percent view Paxton favorably, while only 22 percent see him in a dimmer light. Oddly enough, Hunt is just a step behind (70% favorable/10% unfavorable) despite trailing in support. Cornyn, though, is caught in the ebb and flow of changing tides—his favorable numbers sit at 61 percent, but almost a third of GOP voters think unfavorably of him now, a figure that’s crept upward since last year.Cornyn, once nearly synonymous with Texas GOP power, is watching the ground shift under his feet. Voter sentiment—the hard-to-define energy that shakes up reliable narratives—has turned, giving Paxton an edge nearly everywhere, except among Latino voters, where Cornyn clings to a seven-point margin.There’s similar churn on the Democratic side. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, with 47 percent, leads Texas Rep. James Talarico by eight points. The breakdown is revealing: Crockett —newly ascendant among Latino voters (46% for her, 37% for Talarico, flipping earlier trends)—has found traction almost everywhere except among white voters and those with postgraduate degrees. Still, 12 percent of likely Democratic voters say they're undecided, which keeps the room noisy.When pollsters push the hypothetical button for general election matchups, the margin shrinks. Both Paxton and Cornyn only manage a two-point lead over Crockett, well within the margin of error. Against Talarico, neither Republican gains much breathing room—Paxton does a shade better, but “breathing room” would be overselling it. Between 7 and 8 percent are undecided in these matchups, underlining a race in which no one can take November for granted.It’s worth pausing to reflect on the nature of Texas primaries—they draw far less participation than might be expected considering the outside attention they receive. In 2024, just 14 percent of eligible Texans voted in the March primary (compare that to the 49 percent who typically show up in November). Yet, those primary-goers are shaping who will actually appear on the November ballot, a fact that’s not lost on organizers.Practical matters: early voting begins February 17. Turnout veterans know the drill, but newer voters should keep in mind that Texas requires photo ID—be it a driver’s license, handgun permit, U.S. passport, or military identification. For those who come up empty on those documents, a Reasonable Impediment Declaration plus, say, a bank statement or utility bill suffices. A voter registration card isn’t required, but it can help with alternate IDs.Statisticians add their own footnotes: the Hobby School poll reports a 2.53-point margin of error for the GOP side, and a wider 4.18 points for the general Senate survey; in close races, small swings can land as large headlines.Political winds don’t blow just from Austin or Washington. The survey reached 1,502 likely general election voters and found Texas is split on Donald Trump’s record: 49 percent approve, half do not. Trump's record on immigration and border security gets a narrow thumbs-up—51 to 47 percent—but doesn’t fare as well on foreign policy, the economy, or the cost of living. There the negatives outweigh the positives, suggesting that national themes will shadow the state contest all the way through.As March edges closer and candidates fine-tune their pitch, it’s plain that Texans—even those now undecided—are paying attention. The coming months will be noisy, unpredictable, and closely watched, both inside Texas and beyond its borders. To borrow a phrase, the only certainty is that nothing is certain, and the stakes are rising with every passing week.