Georgia Democrats Break Ranks as Abrams Weighs Third Governor Bid

Paul Riverbank, 5/1/2025Georgia Democrats resist Stacey Abrams' potential third gubernatorial bid amid changing political landscape.

Georgia's Political Crossroads: The Abrams Question

The whispers in Georgia's political corridors are growing louder. Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who twice fell short in her quest for the governor's mansion, might be eyeing a third attempt. But this time, the political landscape looks markedly different.

I've covered Georgia politics for over two decades, and I've rarely seen such a fascinating shift in party dynamics. Unlike her previous runs, when Democrats readily cleared the path for Abrams, the field is already getting crowded. State Senator Jason Esteves has thrown his hat in the ring, and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears poised to join the fray.

The Democratic establishment's enthusiasm for another Abrams campaign seems tepid at best. During a recent visit to Atlanta, I spoke with several party insiders who expressed concerns about what one strategist dubbed "Abrams fatigue." They wouldn't go on record – they never do when it comes to internal party criticism – but their message was clear: Times have changed.

Adding to the complexity is the $300,000 fine recently levied against Abrams' organizations, the New Georgia Project and its Action Fund, for campaign finance violations during her 2018 run. It's the kind of story that writes its own attack ads.

"Every Georgia Democrat is scared to death Abrams runs again," says Cody Hall, an adviser to Governor Brian Kemp. He adds with notable relish, "They know they can't beat her in the primary. But she's also probably their worst candidate in the general." While Hall's assessment might be partisan, it highlights the Democrats' dilemma.

The Georgia of 2024 isn't the Georgia of 2018. The Democratic bench has deepened considerably, with Senators Ossoff and Warnock now leading the party's charge. The grassroots network that Abrams built – once considered her greatest achievement – has largely dispersed, leaving any potential campaign to start almost from scratch.

Yet Abrams still commands attention. At a recent gathering in Atlanta, she told young Black women, "You are the ones who will see what is broken, and instead of trying to repair what was already a shoddy system, you will build a better one." The message resonated, but the question remains: Is the messenger still right for the moment?

Electoral analysts seem split. Cook Political Report sees the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections leans slightly toward the Republicans. Trump's strong showing in Georgia during the 2024 election – matching his 2016 numbers – has Republicans feeling confident about their chances to keep the governor's mansion.

The timing of Abrams' decision could prove crucial. Democrats need enough runway to build a competitive campaign, especially given Trump's continued influence in the state. The party can't afford another setback in Georgia, where every election seems to carry national implications.

From where I sit, Abrams' potential third run isn't just about personal political ambition – it's a test of whether Georgia's Democratic Party is ready to turn the page. The answer might say more about the party's future than any single candidate's chances.

Georgia's Political Crossroads: The Abrams QuestionThe whispers in Georgia's political corridors are growing louder. Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who twice fell short in her quest for the governor's mansion, might be eyeing a third attempt. But this time, the political landscape looks markedly different.I've covered Georgia politics for over two decades, and I've rarely seen such a fascinating shift in party dynamics. Unlike her previous runs, when Democrats readily cleared the path for Abrams, the field is already getting crowded. State Senator Jason Esteves has thrown his hat in the ring, and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears poised to join the fray.The Democratic establishment's enthusiasm for another Abrams campaign seems tepid at best. During a recent visit to Atlanta, I spoke with several party insiders who expressed concerns about what one strategist dubbed "Abrams fatigue." They wouldn't go on record – they never do when it comes to internal party criticism – but their message was clear: Times have changed.Adding to the complexity is the $300,000 fine recently levied against Abrams' organizations, the New Georgia Project and its Action Fund, for campaign finance violations during her 2018 run. It's the kind of story that writes its own attack ads."Every Georgia Democrat is scared to death Abrams runs again," says Cody Hall, an adviser to Governor Brian Kemp. He adds with notable relish, "They know they can't beat her in the primary. But she's also probably their worst candidate in the general." While Hall's assessment might be partisan, it highlights the Democrats' dilemma.The Georgia of 2024 isn't the Georgia of 2018. The Democratic bench has deepened considerably, with Senators Ossoff and Warnock now leading the party's charge. The grassroots network that Abrams built – once considered her greatest achievement – has largely dispersed, leaving any potential campaign to start almost from scratch.Yet Abrams still commands attention. At a recent gathering in Atlanta, she told young Black women, "You are the ones who will see what is broken, and instead of trying to repair what was already a shoddy system, you will build a better one." The message resonated, but the question remains: Is the messenger still right for the moment?Electoral analysts seem split. Cook Political Report sees the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections leans slightly toward the Republicans. Trump's strong showing in Georgia during the 2024 election – matching his 2016 numbers – has Republicans feeling confident about their chances to keep the governor's mansion.The timing of Abrams' decision could prove crucial. Democrats need enough runway to build a competitive campaign, especially given Trump's continued influence in the state. The party can't afford another setback in Georgia, where every election seems to carry national implications.From where I sit, Abrams' potential third run isn't just about personal political ambition – it's a test of whether Georgia's Democratic Party is ready to turn the page. The answer might say more about the party's future than any single candidate's chances.